According to the latest long-term forecast from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC), electric generation capacity in many parts of the U.S. will fall below reserve margins over the next decade. This growing energy demand is largely due to AI and data centers.
The challenge is particularly stark in the Midwest, where capacity shortfalls may begin as early as 2025. Other regions face similar risks by 2034, as seen in the forecast map below.
While new energy projects are in development, including solar, battery, and hybrid, they are not keeping up with the need for new generation. Paired with planned fossil generation retirement, a projected 115 GW over the next decade, less overall capacity is being added than what is required to meet growing demand.
As more fossil-fired generators retire and are replaced with renewables, energy is becoming more and more variable and weather dependent. How can we meet the needs of a rapidly digitalizing economy while maintaining grid reliability?
The need for more natural gas-fired generation is becoming more and more apparent, to address this growing energy gap. Natural gas can provide dispatchable electricity supply to balance other variable energy sources. Just one 60 Hz H/J-class gas turbine in a combined cycle provides around 700 MW. These sources can also be rapidly ramped up or down when the grid requires.
