Texas could see a wholesale electricity price spike of 79% if data center demand outruns expectations in 2027.
According to the EIA’s February Short-Term Energy Outlook, the baseline forecast already has ERCOT load growing 10% from 2025-2027. But in a high-demand scenario, that figure could jump to 15%.
In terms of prices, $47.39/MWh increases to $84.80/MWh. And the grid feels the squeeze.
PJM is also seeing load growth rates faster than the rest of the country, although not quite as much as ERCOT. The baseline PJM case shows about 3.2% increase, while the high-demand case shows 4.7%.
Most regions can absorb higher demand without large price impacts. But ERCOT is the exception.
We’re watching a fundamental shift in how power markets behave. For decades, demand was flat, and the grid was built for reliability. Now demand is surging, and the grid is struggling to catch up. The result is price volatility.
There’s a tension between growth and reliability. And the price jump (a possible 79% in this case) is the market begging for more generation and faster interconnection.
